KC
Kansas City Chiefs
21
AWAY
—
BUF
Buffalo Bills
30
HOME_WIN
FORMAT_EXAMPLE, NOT THE REAL BOX SCORE: Only the final score above (BUF 30,
KC 21) and the two season EPA/play figures cited below are real. Every drive result, EPA
total, win-probability shift, and play description from here down — including the KPI row,
the drive log, and the Professor's callouts — is a hand-built illustration of this report's
format, not the verified per-play record for this specific game. For the real drive-by-drive
numbers, open this game in
DRIVE_TRACKER.
BUF TOTAL EPA
+17.2
illustrative
KC TOTAL EPA
+0.5
illustrative
BUF DRIVES
9
illustrative
PROFESSOR'S OPENING (illustrative): The score says 9 points. The EPA says 16.7 points of
offensive advantage. The box score makes this look competitive. It wasn't, by the numbers.
Kansas City's +0.048 EPA/play profile didn't show up. Buffalo's +0.145 profile did.
Two turnovers worth of expected points is hard to overcome even for Mahomes.
DRIVE LOG — 18 ILLUSTRATIVE POSSESSIONS
This drive log is illustrative, built to demonstrate the report format — not the real
2024 Week 11 KC@BUF play-by-play. Starred drives (★) are the Professor's picks for the
kind of moment this format is built to call out. Open the real game in
DRIVE_TRACKER.
1
KC
★ Mahomes INT on play 2 — Taron Rapp pick, roughing penalty offset
TURNOVER
-3.1
-6.8%
2
BUF
Allen: 3rd-and-6 to Cooper +30, 3rd-and-8 to Samuel +15, J.Cook TD (PAT blocked)
TOUCHDOWN
+5.4
+11.9%
3
KC
Mahomes sacked on 3rd-and-5, punt
PUNT
-2.8
-6.7%
4
BUF
Allen sustains 10-play drive, converted 3rd-and-2, Allen keeper TD
TOUCHDOWN
+6.1
+14.2%
5
KC
Rice +20, Mahomes finds Travis Kelce in red zone — 1st KC score
TOUCHDOWN
+4.2
+8.3%
6
BUF
Allen sacked, 3-and-out
PUNT
-2.2
-4.1%
7
KC
3rd-and-6 conversion, Mahomes scramble stalls in FG range — punt
PUNT
+1.8
+3.4%
8
BUF
Shakir over the middle, Diggs slot for 18, Dalton Kincaid TD
TOUCHDOWN
+4.9
+10.7%
9
KC
★ Mahomes fumble, BUF recovers — 13-point deficit at half
TURNOVER
-5.6
-12.3%
10
BUF
Converted turnover, Allen bootleg TD — 30-14 at one point
TOUCHDOWN
+3.8
+9.1%
11
KC
Mahomes starts Q3 comeback — Kelce TD from 22 yards
TOUCHDOWN
+4.7
+9.5%
12
BUF
Allen kneels twice — clock management, BUF protecting lead
PUNT
-0.8
-1.2%
13
KC
Pacheco for 11, incomplete, Mahomes sacked for -8 — another punt
PUNT
-3.1
-5.8%
14
BUF
Allen drains 7 plays / 4:22 off clock — BUF field goal
FIELD_GOAL
+1.3
+3.2%
15
KC
Mahomes to Rice moves the chains, drive stalls — punt
PUNT
+1.1
+2.2%
16
BUF
Allen runs clock — four runs, BUF goes 3-and-out intentionally
PUNT
-1.1
-0.9%
17
KC
★ Mahomes scores — too little, needs onside. 30-21 final swing
TOUCHDOWN
+3.3
+4.9%
18
BUF
Onside recovery — Allen kneels. Game over.
KNEEL
-0.2
+0.5%
THE STORY IN THREE DRIVES
DRIVES 1–2 (KC TURNOVER → BUF TD).
Mahomes' second-play interception followed immediately by a 65-yard Buffalo touchdown drive
was a 18-point expected-value swing before the first commercial break. The roughing penalty
that offset the interception — and gave Kansas City a first down — would have mattered had
KC scored. They didn't. The Bills went the length of the field on their next possession and
never looked back.
DRIVE 9 (MAHOMES FUMBLE, END OF HALF).
KC was already losing EPA on the night but still within two scores at 20-7. The fumble
going into halftime turned a 14-point game into one where KC would need to be perfect in
the second half. Against a Bills defense playing at home, that wasn't happening.
DRIVES 13–14 (KC SACK, BUF CLOCK KILL).
When Kansas City needed drives in the third quarter, they generated another sack-punt.
Buffalo followed it with a 4-minute field goal drive. At that point the win probability
model had KC at roughly 8%. The comeback path was closed.
WHAT THE DATA SAID BEFORE AND WHAT IT SAYS NOW
The pre-game EPA gap (BUF +0.145, KC +0.048) projected Buffalo as the better offense by
roughly a touchdown over the course of a game if both teams ran true-to-form — real 2024
season splits. The illustrative drive log above is built around that same idea: Buffalo
running at its season EPA rate, Kansas City coming in below its own.
TAKEAWAY (illustrative): Two KC turnovers generated a combined -8.7 expected points.
Remove those plays and this is a different game. But turnovers aren't random — they correlate
with pressure, and BUF's pass rush forced Mahomes into uncomfortable situations all night.
The defense created what the offense cashed in on. That's how you beat Mahomes.
PROFESSOR'S VERDICT (illustrative)
Buffalo was the better team by EPA in 2024 through Week 11 — that part is real. The
rest of this verdict, including the ~16.7-point EPA margin, is built from the
illustrative drive log above, not the real per-play record for this game. File this
under: an example of how the EPA model would tell this story, not the model's actual
call on this specific game.