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THE_PROFESSOR'S_FILM_ROOM

Old games, new numbers. The Professor pulls historic NFL matchups back out of the archive and runs them through the same win-probability and drive-EPA engine that powers the Drive Tracker. No highlight reels. No nostalgia. Just what the play-by-play actually says happened — on the games everyone remembers, and the ones nobody does.

// BIG_GAMES

The matchups burned into memory — Super Bowls, playoff classics — retold through win-probability swings and drive-level EPA instead of the broadcast cut. The chart usually knows something the highlight reel left out.

// DIAMONDS_IN_THE_ROUGH

Consequential games nobody remembers. A Week 17 loss that decided a playoff berth, a meaningless-looking result that flipped a season. We mine 7,000+ games of data to find the stories the standings buried, then verify the stakes before we tell them.

THE FILM

BIG_GAME // SUPER_BOWL_LI // NE_34_ATL_28_OT
28–3: SUPER BOWL LI AS A WIN-PROBABILITY CHART
Atlanta touched 99.4% win probability with 17 minutes left and lost. This is what the most famous collapse in Super Bowl history looks like when you plot it play by play — and the exact drive where the model flipped.
DATA: NFLVERSE · 2017-02-05 · NE 34, ATL 28 (OT)
DIAMOND // 2003_WEEK_17 // ARI_18_MIN_17
THE 28–3 NOBODY REMEMBERS: MINNESOTA'S 4TH-AND-25 SEASON
A 9–6 Vikings team led a 3-win Arizona club, sat at 96.9% win probability, and lost on a 4th-and-25 touchdown as time expired. The play cost them the playoffs. Almost nobody remembers it. The data never forgot.
DATA: NFLVERSE · 2003-12-28 · ARI 18, MIN 17

HOW THE FILM ROOM WORKS

Every number in every article here is computed from this site's committed game data — the same nflverse play-by-play behind the Drive Tracker. The charts are generated by a script, not drawn by hand, so anything the Professor claims can be re-derived by re-running it. If a stat can't be computed from the data, it doesn't get made. New to the metrics? Start with What is EPA? and Win Probability, explained.

EXPLORE MORE

TOOL // FREE + PAID
DRIVE TRACKER
Drive-level EPA and win probability for any NFL game, live during the season. The engine behind these articles.
LIVE DURING SEASON
WEEKLY // 3 FORMATS
WEEKLY CONTENT
EPA tier rankings, analytics-first game previews, and post-game drive reports during the season.
MONDAYS & THURSDAYS IN-SEASON
EXPLAINERS // 5 GUIDES
NFL ANALYTICS EXPLAINED
Plain-language guides to EPA, Win Probability, CPOE, and the advanced stats glossary.
5 ARTICLES